So let's get this party started. I've got about six hours before the show starts, but wanted to get my predictions up here while you all have some time to read, argue and perhaps mock them for their simplicity. And just so you know I'm hardcore, I'm putting up my thoughts on ALL the categories; not just the big ones. Here goes:
Costume Design: Memoirs of a Geisha; Documentary Short: The Mushroom Club; Documentary Feature: March of the Penguins; Foreign Language Film: Tsotsi; Cinematography: Brokeback Mountain; Film Editing: Crash; Sound Mixing: King Kong; Sound Editing: War of the Worlds; Animated Feature: Corpse Bride; Animated Short: One Man Band; Live Action Short: Six Shooter; Original Song: "Travelin' Thru"; Original Score: Brokeback Mountain; Art Direction: Good Night, and Good Luck; Makeup: The Chronicles of Narnia; Adapted Screenplay: Brokeback Mountain; Original Screenplay: Crash; Visual Effects: King Kong; Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz; Supporting Actor: George Clooney; Actress: Reese Witherspoon; Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman; Director: Ang Lee; Picture: Brokeback Mountain.
Now, when it comes to the ballot, the more obscure predictions were always the tie-breakers at my parties, and I still consider them such. We roll the dice on what our instincts tell us based on the title, hence my choices of The Mushroom Club, Tsotsi, and Six Shooter. Other predictions are based more on what I think the Academy will vote more than who I would like to see win. I think Crash was a better movie than Brokeback, but I think the sweeping epic will win in the Best Picture race. I'd love to see "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" win, but really, the Academy isn't that hip yet, and Dolly Parton's got the veteran status to assure a statue. I think War of the Worlds will be all but shut out, excepting Sound Editing, because no one wants to see Tom Cruise's movie get more publicity. And Philip Seymour Hoffman is a tremendous character actor who finally has a shot, and I think the Academy will reward him for it, though Heath Ledger was amazing in Brokeback.
I also predict that Jon Stewart will keep me and his The Daily Show audience giggling, and that the rest of the viewing public will lack an appreciation for his wit and humor. There it is: some of us will love him (as we did Chris Rock last year), but most of the sofa sitters will not, because they just don't get him. And next year, we'll be stuck with the bland Billy C. again.
Okay, so that's all that. I have no idea how I'll pull together my show review for tomorrow, but I think I will definitely choose not to post up comments as the show goes on, since I'd rather enjoy it and reflect tomorrow, then possibly miss something tonight. Rest assured that I will have my tally on how my predictions held out though, too.